The landscape of American democracy is increasingly intersecting with speculative finance as betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi turn midterm elections into a multimillion-dollar market. These websites enable users to place wagers on a vast array of events, ranging from sports results and reality TV outcomes to political races.
David Bensoussan, known online as Scottilicious, exemplifies this new wave of political traders. A 49-year-old real estate portfolio manager based in Los Angeles, Bensoussan has generated over $1.7 million in profits through prediction markets. He attributes his success to a unique methodology that blends polling data, economic indicators, and assessments of voter enthusiasm with an intuitive sense he describes as "vibes" or a sixth sense.
For the current midterm elections, Bensoussan has deployed more than $1.5 million across over a dozen races. His portfolio includes specific bets such as $113,000 on Democrat Mary Peltola to win the Senate race in Alaska and $119,000 wagered against Republicans gaining control of both the House and Senate. If his predictions hold true by November 3, he stands to profit more than $340,000. However, a stronger-than-expected Republican performance could result in losses totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars.
To mitigate these risks, Bensoussan employs a strategy of placing his largest wagers only when the probability of success is high, typically seeking odds of 75 percent or greater. While he notes that trading prediction markets is not his primary line of business, he describes this year's election cycle as by far the most interesting opportunity he has encountered.
Sources: The New York Times Technology.