NASA’s Swift space telescope is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere on Wednesday, November 4, nearly 22 years after its launch. The U.S. Space Force forecast reentry for about 9:30 a.m. Paris time, but the estimate carries an uncertainty of 11 hours in either direction. Aerospace Corporation’s latest estimate placed the event at around 10:11 a.m., with a 12-hour margin.
Swift weighs about 1.5 tonnes, and the exact timing will determine where any surviving fragments might come down. NASA says debris can reach only areas between 20.6 degrees south and 20.6 degrees north latitude, reflecting the telescope’s low-inclination orbit. Mainland France is outside that zone, although some French overseas territories—including the Caribbean, French Guiana, Mayotte and Tahiti—lie within it.
Most of the possible reentry zone is ocean. Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell told Gizmodo that the debris is therefore most likely to fall into the sea.
Launched in November 2004 to study gamma-ray bursts, Swift was designed for a two-year mission but remained in orbit much longer. Its observations ended on October 20 after its orbit declined faster than expected in recent years. A planned rescue effort using the LINK robotic tug failed.
NASA and the Space Force are continuing to track the spacecraft and are expected to post updated forecasts on the mission blog. Aerospace Corporation is also updating its trajectory map as new measurements become available.
Sources: Numerama.