The Swift space telescope is nearing the end of its mission. Launched 22 years ago, the observatory has lost altitude following increased solar activity, while an emergency attempt to rescue the mission failed. Its instruments have now been switched off, allowing the spacecraft to descend naturally under the effect of atmospheric drag.
NASA and the U.S. Space Force are tracking Swift to determine when and where it will reenter. Simulations cited by Space.com indicate that the fall could take place on Friday, November 7, 2026, although the exact timing and location will not be known until shortly before the event.
Swift was already below 275 kilometers in altitude the previous week. This places it below most satellite constellations and below the International Space Station, reducing the likelihood of a collision during the descent.
The telescope is expected to break apart rapidly once it reaches the upper atmosphere. At around 120 kilometers in altitude, air friction should heat its structure, solar panels and antennas. Remaining components are expected to disintegrate at lower altitude, around 78 kilometers above Earth.
Some fragments could theoretically reach the ground, but the probability is considered extremely small. Orbital simulations place the potential reentry corridor around 21 degrees south of the equator, crossing areas that include parts of Brazil, northern Chile, southern Africa, Botswana and Australia. Much of that corridor consists of ocean.
The precise impact area will only become clear when Swift is almost completely destroyed, leaving only a few minutes of warning. NASA has not issued a public risk statement, reflecting the very low probability of an accident. If fragments are found afterward, they may be difficult to identify because the telescope’s scientific instruments are not expected to be among its most resilient components.
Sources: Numerama.