For the past two years, UK officials have promoted the prospect of a £400 billion economic injection from artificial intelligence to reassure the public against fears of job losses and economic instability. However, AI Minister Kanishka Narayan recently admitted in parliament that this figure was significantly inflated, revealing it originated solely from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by the consultancy firm Public First, now known as PF Global.
Narayan clarified that the government's own internal projections estimate AI adoption and data investment will contribute between £55 billion and £140 billion to the UK economy by 2030, with a central estimate of £120 billion. The minister characterized this revised figure as "hugely uncertain" but noted it is less than a third of the previously cited £400 billion target. Despite possessing these lower estimates since at least November 2025, various government departments and agencies continued to utilize the higher Google-backed figure for nearly two years under different administrations.
Jonathan Dupont, head of economics at PF Global, attributed the disparity between the two figures to differing assumptions regarding the speed of AI adoption. He explained that while their 2023 model anticipated rapid uptake, the government's current calculations assume a much slower rate of integration into civil service workflows and broader society. Consequently, PF Global has adjusted its own central estimate for 2030 to align more closely with the government's £120 billion figure, though they maintain that growth could accelerate in subsequent years.
The revelation has sparked criticism regarding the reliance on industry-funded research for policy-making. Dame Chi Onwurah, chair of the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, warned that overstating technological benefits risks undermining public trust and digital transformation efforts. She emphasized the need for realism and transparency regarding potential savings. Similarly, Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute highlighted a concerning pattern where precise economic figures often contain built-in assumptions and incentives shaped by industry funding.
Lord Holmes of Richmond, who previously questioned ministers about the origin of the £400 billion claim in January 2025 without receiving an answer, expressed regret that the correction took so long. He stressed that robust data is critical given the billions of pounds involved in government deployment decisions. While Narayan's parliamentary response marked the first recorded instance of the government explicitly contrasting the two numbers and acknowledging Google's role, it did not formally withdraw the original £400 billion figure or declare it incorrect.
Sources: WIRED.